Sports Handicapping – There are no sure bets

sports-betting-picsHere is my favorite tearjerker story to tell. It was a football game football game several years ago (I believe 2003 or 20004) between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars. My daughter Lori and I had arranged our bets to where we had the under (46) and Jacksonville +3. The score was Pittsburgh 21-20 with 6 seconds to go and Jacksonville lined up for a chip shot 15-yard field goal.

  1. If Jacksonville kicks the field goal, we win both the game and the under
  2. If Jacksonville misses the field goal, we win both the game and the under

Lori (in her infinite wisdom) says: “Dad, we can’t lose, no matter what happens!”

I (in my infinite wisdom) say: “The only way we can lose is if the field goal is blocked and Pittsburgh recovers and runs 90 yards for a TD. But that can’t happen.”

  1. The ball is snapped
  2. The kick is blocked
  3. The ball rolls to within one inch of the out-of-bounds line
  4. Pittsburgh picks up the ball and runs 84 yards for a TD
  5. Pittsburgh’s final score is 28-20!

We lose the game and the under. I walked out to my driveway in my stocking feet to avoid kicking the TV set. There were curse words invented that night that won’t be discovered until the year 2048. The same questions spun in my head for weeks:

  1. Why wasn’t the blocking better?
  2. Why didn’t the ball roll up the field?
  3. Why did the ball roll to the sideline?
  4. Why didn’t the ball roll out of bounds?
  5. Why didn’t the Pittsburgh player fall on the ball?
  6. Why wasn’t there a Jacksonville player over there to tackle him?

There were no answers to why I didn’t win that bet. I have a lot of these types of stories, but only a few stand out from the din of all of the others. I’ll briefly tell you a couple other stories where I was on one side of the spectrum or the other.

More Examples of Handicapping gone wrong (or right)

From the heartbreaking category, there was the NBA Finals game between the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers. I had San Antonio -7 (I think) in the closing game of this series. They were up by a bunch and already celebrating the championship when Cleveland started to make meaningless buckets. The worst of which was a Delonte West layup that clearly was shot after the buzzer, but counted anyways because no one outside of the betting circles cared because the Spurs won the championship. This bucket made Cleveland the winner of the spread by 1 point. I nearly broke my TV.

Purdue vs MSU

I have a couple of stories on the other side of the fence. First, there was a 1997 college football game (a game which got me hooked on sports betting) between Michigan State and Purdue. The Spartans had a 16 point lead with a little of 2 minutes left as they were attempting a field goal. That’s when I said, “All they need to do is block the field goal and take it for a TD;” which they did, but they missed the 2 point conversion.

Then I said “All they need to do is recover this onside kick and score a TD;” which they did. I tried it one more time, “All they need to do is recover another onside kick and get the field goal;” which they did with time expiring. I have never been as elated as I was at that one time.

Raptors vs Wizards

The last one I will leave you with is another legendary one from the vault. This was about 2007 or 2008. The Toronto Raptors were playing on the road against the Washington Wizards when I was really big into betting on the NBA. I even had the League Pass so I could watch all of the games. This game was rather uneventful during the first 3 1/2 quarters (like a lot of NBA games). I had picked Toronto to win straight up.

I didn’t really get into the game until the closing couple of minutes when Washington went on a run to seemingly win the game. They hit a 3-pointer late and the Wizards’ color commentator shouted “Dagger!” like he was screaming it in my face. That put Washington up 6 points with less than a minute left. Toronto hit a 3 pointer and I yelled “Dagger!” in jest back at him. The game was closed within 3 points.

Toronto missed an opportunity to tie the game. When the Washington player (his name escapes me) got the rebound, he celebrated too early and threw the ball up in the air with several seconds left on the clock. The guard on the Raptors caught the ball in mid-air and made a shot before the buzzer sounded to tie the game. “Dagger!” The game wasn’t even close in OT; Toronto had already won and ever since I have said “Dagger!” whenever the team I bet on looks like it’s going to lose.

Still, it’s very helpful to get some advice with your sports betting picks. Most of them are not going to be as memorable as you favorite and least favorite moments. Just realize that no matter how good the source, there is no such thing as a sure bet.

Tips for Wagering Money

Online Casino Betting Tips


Let’s get right to it, no leading up to the punch line, the ace in the hole, and all of that crap: The whole entire, complete reason people lose in gambling is because they don’t have money management. And the whole, entire, complete reason they won’t win after reading this article is because they won’t allow themselves to get and follow a smart money management approach to gambling.

This is probably the only article ever written in the history of the Internet (if I do say so myself) where the answer to what is wrong with your gambling is given to you right off the bat.

If I remember, when I get to the last chapter in my book, “Money Management for Gamblers”, I repeat the message again: Money management, or the lack of same, is the reason we lose at gambling. How many of you will listen to these words (or is it read these words?) and pay attention?

I’m gonna be real generous and give you the benefit of the doubt because I know there are a lot of smart people who will heed my advice. Let’s see, I say 2 percent, of you will grasp what I’m trying to say and will promise to try this intelligent approach to gambling. Of that 2 percent promise to change their ways, I’ve reached twenty people.

Of those twenty people, about 50 percent, or ten of you, will actually do what I suggest.

Bottom Line: 10 out of 1,000 or 1 out of 100 will actually put these methods or theories to good use. If my math is correct, that’s 1 percent of you who’ll swing over. I may be a little high in my assuming I’ll get 1 percent, but that’s another story.

The Big Four & Little Three

Let’s ask you the most important question: What is money management? And the answer is: Money management is knowing what to bet on casino games online after a win and what to bet after a loss.

You’ll get a test on these strong points, so memorize this one it’s the total explanation of what you lack: Money Management!

Now, there are the four things that you absolutely must have to compete in gambling. I call them the Big Four.

  1. Bankroll
  2. Knowledge of the Game
  3. Money Management
  4. Discipline

There are three other things that are important to your gambling days and I call the Little Three:

  1. Theory
  2. Logic
  3. Trends

Why do I call them the Little Three? That’s a pretty good question, but I have no real answer, except: (a) I’ve already used Big Four, (b) I couldn’t think of another description.

But just because the word “little” covers these three topics, don’t think for one second that they are not important to the handling of your money and your approach to the game of your choice.

I call them the little three because without learning and utilizing the Big Four, the Little Three won’t matter.

Online Sports Betting Tips

It is easy to forget that losing streaks do happen and the whole idea is too conserve your bankroll so you can wager another day. It is not unusual for sports gamblers to lose nine or ten games in a row or twenty or more net units during a losing streak. Considering this let us review a few simple guidelines that will assist you in your attempts to profit from internet sports gambling.

  1. How many sport book accounts do I need?
  2. If you bet primarily on the major North American sports you will need a minimum of three sportsbooks. If you also wager on golf, motor racing, soccer or tennis then four or five online sportsbook accounts is appropriate. Remember line and price shopping are a fundamental sports betting investment tool. Having multiple accounts will allow you to play the best line for your wager. Need help finding an online gambling site? Check out

  3. How much should I wager per game?
  4. We recommend betting or risking 2% or less of your bankroll per game. For example if your bankroll is $10,000 your unit size will be $200. This allows you to lose twenty five net units, which does happen and still preserve at least one half of your bankroll.

  5. Should I increase my wager size on plays that I am more confident?
  6. In most cases you should bet the same amount (1 unit) on every game however you may increase your wager size if your strong plays have shown to have a greater edge over multiple seasons. The problem is most gamblers do not have a statistically significant number of wagers to determine if their strong plays will continue to show an increased edge or win percent. For a explanation of statistical significance read Stanford Wong’s, Sharp Sports Betting available at

  7. How much should I wager on my strong plays?
  8. Wagers that you have a strong feeling about may have no more chance of being correct then your normal bets. It is possible to have a winning record and still lose money if you vary your bet amount by too much. Therefore we do not advocate increasing your wager size by more than 50% or betting more than 1.5 units.

  9. What should my ROI goal be?
  10. Realistically if you manage a 5% return you are doing a great job. You have to hit 52.5% just to breakeven versus a -110 line. Winning 55% of your bets on side and total wagers will give you a 5% return. Here is the math for 100 wagers at -110 juice. (55 wins)-(45 losses)-(4.5 juice on losses)=5.5 units. 5.5 units divided by 100 games = .055 or 5.5% ROI. Anybody claiming to do better is probably being insincere or hasn’t been betting long enough to have a statistically significant record. The good news is that every time we wager on a game we know the result by the end of the day and we have the ability to churn a large amount of money in a short period of time.

Casino Deposit Methods

deposit-methodsCasino Deposit Methods are what players use when they are trying to get money deposited into a real player account. Since all people don’t have access to the same kind of method there are several available for example Neteller, Click2Pay, Moneybookers, FirePay, 900Pay, Citadel, PrePaid ATM, Wire Transfer, and ACH.

Neteller is one of the most popular methods around today. They provide some of the fastest and most secure ways to transfer money online. One of the main reasons people love this option so much is because they can utilize same day payments and virtually instant cash transfers.

Click2Pay and Moneybookers are also very popular because it is almost instant and they do most of the work for you, they transfer funds from a bank account or credit card to the account and carry out the payment.

FirePay is also one of the most popular because they work just like a credit card, only they use a bank account instead, as soon as the bank account is funded the FirePay account is ready to be used.

900 Pay is probably one of the easiest and most private payment options, this lets players deposit anywhere from $75 to $150 into a casino account and have the money charged directly to their phone bill. There is no credit card or bank info needed which is why so many people prefer this method.

Citadel and ACH are both electronic check services that can be used by anyone who has a bank account that is located in the United States and that can have checks payable in US Dollars.

Prepaid ATM is a very private method to use when playing online, it can be funded in several different ways, then the player can simply use that card to fund a casino account without having to give out credit card numbers or bank account numbers.